Agenda – Commodity Markets Outlook 2017-05-15T16:29:01+00:00

Commodity Markets Outlook – Agenda

Agrimoney Live – Millennium Mayfair, London, 23rd – 25th May 2017
The Investors’ Link to the Food Chain

Helping traders, producers and financial institutions make informed decisions on market dynamics, supply and demand factors and mitigating risk.

TUESDAY 23 MAY 2017

COMMODITIES

TRADING

08:30 – Registration and morning refreshments
08:50 – Welcome Address:
Mike Verdin, Editor, Agrimoney
08:50 – Chairpersons opening remarks:  
Eddie Tofpik, Head of Foreign Exchange, ADM ISI

 Macro Trend Analysis

09:00 – Keynote address:  Understanding the changing agri and soft commodities landscape

Marc Sadler, Adviser:  Risk and Markets, Agriculture,  Worldbank 

09:30 – Keynote panel discussion: Accounting for and dealing with political risk in the global environment
  • How major events in the past 12 months have reshaped the agricultural landscape
  • The AMIS experience – can G20 AMIS be the answer?
  • What impact has a Trump presidency had on agricultural markets and commodity trade flows?
  • What impact has Brexit and EU trade negotiations had on trade flows and agricultural price movements? And what will be the continuing effect?
  • Russia/ China considerations
  • Pricing political risk factors– how can the industry protect itself from major events; currency fluctuations and increasing risk in markets?

Moderator: Abdolreza Abbassian, Secretary, Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS); Senior Economist, FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS (FAO)

Rory Deverell, Senior Commodity Risk Manager, INTL FCStone

Jan Lambregts, Global Head of Financial Markets Research, Rabobank

Marc Sadler, Adviser:  Risk and Markets, Agriculture,  Worldbank 

10:15 – Commercial Outlook: How will the agricultural sector react to commodity fluctuations, oil price movements and biofuel production in a supply constrained world?

Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group

10:35 – Business Matchmaking

Guided speed-networking for all attendees, giving everyone 60 seconds to swap cards, make new connections and find potential business opportunities

10:45 – Morning Refreshments
11:15 – How can investors trade agricultural commodity markets?
  • Breadth vs depth
  • Long only vs absolute returns
  • Discretionary vs systematic strategies

Fiona Boal, Director, Commodities, Fulcrum Asset Management

11:40 – Mitigating weather related risks – what does 2017 have in store for commodity markets?
  • Frequency of extreme weather events and their impact on agriculture
  • What’s the latest on La Niña and El Niño and what does it mean for crops?
  • Expectations for summer weather in the U.S.
  • Weather outlook for the EU, Black Sea, and Asia
  • How to use weather information effectively

Kyle Tapley, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist, MDA Weather

12:05  – Mitigating weather risk in agriculture – the role of index based weather risk protection
  • The historical context of the index-based market: who uses it, how it works, weather data issues, the role of gridded weather data
  • The role of index based weather protection in agri
  • Examples of weather hedges seen in agri
  • The practicalities of accessing weather risk protection: structuring hedges, accessing capacity and the role of the weatherXchange Platform

Stephen Doherty, Chairman, WeatherXchange

12:30 – Networking Lunch
13:45 – Interview with the Editor: Regional and global consumer demand and production output
  • Consumption driven trends
  • Pricing considerations
  • How do you manage the demand of consumer lead markets when production is variable?
  • How will changes to policy effect supply after 2020?

Moderator: Mike Verdin, Editor, Agrimoney

Arnaud Petit, Director Commodities and Trade, Copa-Cogeca

14:15 – Adjusting for currency risk…
  • Currency fluctuations impacting price, trends and flows
  • Minimising currency risk in developed, emerging and frontier economies
  • Regulation; dealing with it (we all have to…) and the pressures
  • Exchange and/or OTC!  How each can help minimise risk in currency markets

Eddie Tofpik, Head of Foreign Exchange, ADM ISI

14:45 – Afternoon refreshments

Roundtables

15.15 – 17.15: CME Group and INTL FCStone
Price Risk Management
  • CME Agricultural product overview, market access, deliveries and clearing
  • Grain & Oilseed market – Todays fundamental and external market environment
    • Wheat, corn and soy complex review
    • FX, political and external price discovery & influence
  • Ag market price volatility review
    • Flat price (US, Black Sea & EU)
    • Premiums (Grain and meal)
    • Volatility – Historical and implied
    • Commercial contractual environment – pressures and price risk on margin
    • Hedging implications
  • Risk Management policy creation & Execution for commercials
    • Shifting commercial value chain contractual environment
  • Hedging strategies – Advancing our risk management toolkit across the value chain
    • Exchange trading risk management solutions
      • Focus on producer, trader & end user
    • OTC Structured hedging solutions
      • Focus on producer and End users

Jaime Nolan Miralles, Vice President OTC & Advisory EMEA, INTL FCStone

15.15 – 17.15: BLOCKCHAIN
The impact of digital trends. How Blockchain can reshape your business and improve the effectiveness of the ag market

Led by Somil Goyal, Executive Director, EY

15.15 – 17.15: VALUE OF MIFID II
How will regulatory changes affect agribusiness traders?
  • MIFID II – Position limits
  • Rules – a reminder
  • What is really happening?
  • How will they really work? Do we actually know?
  • Will they have any real impact?
  • Should we be aware of any other parts of MIFID II?

Led by Aviv Handler, Managing Director, ETR Advisory

17:15 – Chairpersons closing remarks
17:30 – Drinks reception
Agribusiness Strategy Agenda
Real Assets Agenda
Agri-tech Agenda